Footnote 49, Chapter 4, Page 103:

In Lijphart’s (1985) most extensive analysis of South Africa, he created a five-point scale to classify the existence of conditions in countries as either very favourable (+2), favourable (+1), neutral (0), unfavourable (-1) or very unfavourable (-2). His methodology for allocating these ratings seems fairly impressionistic. He judged countries’ fulfillment of them based on qualitative sources but Bogaards describes evidence suggesting that Lijphart’s ratings are not replicable. Bogaards explains that: John McGarry and S.J.R. Noel (1989), and many with them, predicted a (black) majority segment in a democratic South Africa where Lijphart judged minority parties of more or less equal size the most likely outcome of the first free elections. This makes a difference of seven points [in South Africa’s total rating] and South Africa would in this alternative interpretation end well below zero with a score of -6, a score nearly equaling the ill-fated consociational democracy of Cyprus. In addition McGarry and Noel assign more unfavourable weight to socio-economic inequality [in South Africa]. Lijphart’s rating system and similar ones, such as that used by McGarry and Noel, apparently constitute the only attempts to express quantitatively the existence of these conditions. It seems that attempts to replicate their methodologies would be controversial so data from other sources will be used to test these conditions in this statistical analysis.